Super Heroes all have their kryptonite. Whether, it’s dealing with high backhands on a slow clay court, over anxious umpires, or even the pressure of defending tournament points.

Roger Federer’s second straight loss this week at the Dubai Championships to Andy Murray, raised many eyebrow’s as to whether his reign atop the ATP is coming to a close. Opponents are starting to feel confident against the guardian of the tour, and they are making there voices heard. Novak Djokovic, commented after Rogers loss by saying:

“Honestly, considering the results of this year, the style both players
have and the speed of this court, I expected Murray to win.”

“I don’t think Roger likes it when he gets a lot of balls back, and obviously
Murray has a great style, a great talent, he knows what to play in the moment.”

“Obviously when the time is passing you learn more and more, especially if you play him,
so I think after those results in the last couple of months more players are believing they can win against him.”

I agree with Djokovic; more players are confident these days when playing Federer. Its seems as though his unbeatable era is coming to an end. I believe the bigger worry at the moment for R-fed is not his opponents, but his mental state. After his defeat at the hands of Murray, Federer proceeded to make uncharacteristic remarks about Murray, saying that:

“I don’t think he’s changed his game a whole lot since I played him in the Bangkok final, in 2006. Not that I’m disappointed but I really would have thought he would have changed it in some ways. He stands way to far behind on the court and (that means) you’ve got to do a lot of running, and he tends to wait a lot for the mistake of the opponent.”

These rare classless, remarks by Federer were an indication that the world number 1 is rattled, and maybe starting to doubt his abilities. Federer is not usually one for sour grape comments, he is always quick to give credit when it is deserved. However, Fed is far more familiar with winning, where compliments are easier to give.

Federer’s troubles have been a work in progress, they did not merely start with this year’s semi-final loss at the Aussie Open. His 2007 Wimbledon final against Nadal, which went 5 sets, was a clear indication that the gap between R-fed and the rest of the field was beginning to close. The final of the masters series in Canada brought further concern, with his loss to Djokovic. Even his narrow�escape at the U.S. Open, where Djokovic had chances in all 3 sets, were a reasons to suggest that the tide was slowly turning. Finally, his 2 losses at the end of the year to David Nalbandian showed more chinks in the armour.

Have no fear Fed fan’s, their is nothing to worry about. Roger’s current form, is very reminiscent of what all great players encounter. Every great champion, starts to win less and less as the years go by. They become more selective with tournaments, and more cautious with preserving there health. Federer, had eluded to wanting to play until he is 35, thus I think he will play substantially less over the coming years. Fed’s priorities are different now then they once were. He is chasing grand slams titles, not titles in Dubai, or Basel, or even Indian Wells - been there done that.

Federers current play and career is starting to resemble the man he is trying to catch,�Pete Sampras. Before calling it quits in 2002 after winning the U.S. Open, Sampras did not win any other grand slams other than Wimbledon since claiming the Aussie Open in 1997. That means that from Pete’s 14 grand slams, his first 9 came on hard court, rebound ace and grass. The next 4 slams were on his best surface, grass, at Wimbledon. With his final one coming at the US Open.

Federer, in comparison, is 26 years old and currently has 12 grand slams. He has 3 Aussie Open titles, 5 Wimbledon’s and 4 U.S. Opens. Now, what if I said that Fed would end up with 18 slams? Another 4 Wimbledon’s, 2 U.S. Opens, 1 French and 1 more Aussie crown? That doesn’t sound so bad, now does it? That total number sounds impressive, but they will not come with the same domination that we have become accustomed to seeing. That would mean, that over the next 9 years, Federer would win only 6 more grand slams. A slam and a half a year for the next 9 years. I believe this is a realistic total, and one that will still smash Sampras’s current count of 14 major’s.

Sampras himself said, ironically after his defeat to Federer in the 4th round of the 2001 Wimbledon Championships, that:

“its the law of averages. Eventually, everyone will lose at some point, all streaks will end.”

Unfortunately for Sampras, Federer ended Pete’s run of 4 straight title’s. Now its Federer’s turn to feel the pressure of sustaining the top spot, over current rivals Djokovic and Nadal. Fed’s task of finishing number�one for his 5-6 years in a row, are achievable, but they will not come with the same dominance that the tennis world is use to seeing. The current guardian of the ATP, will have the daunting task of keeping the current crop of today’s hero’s under his careful watch, because as time goes on, winning still happens, just not as frequently.

Technorati Tags: Andy Murray, David Nalbandian, Novak Djokovic, Pete Sampras, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer

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