The years first masters series is here and the ATP’s best are ready to shine in the desert. The 96 man hardcourt field will be spearheaded by Swiss number one Roger Federer, and the two men vying for his number 1 ranking, Rafael Nadal, and Novak Djokovic. The fab 3, each have some work to do over the next month on tour in order to sustain their ranking positions. Federer is in the best position of the 3, with practically no points to defend at Indian Wells. Losing 1st round last year to Canas has turned into a blessing for R-Fed this year, as the 2 men who are trying to catch him, have many points to defend. Nadal, is the defending champ and has 500 points to defend. Rafa can not afford to lose any points, otherwise he can not gain any ground on Roger. Djokovic will also be hoping that his trip to California is a long one. He made the finals last year losing to Nadal, therefore Djokovic has 350 points to defend, and that will be crucial in his quest to overtake Rafa, and then perhaps Federer.

Indian Wells, has had the tendency to not favour flat hitters, so I wouldn’t expect much from players, such as James Blake and Tomas Berdych. The court in recent years has favoured players who have a good defense core, such as Nadal, Federer, and Lleyton Hewitt who have combined for the last 6 titles in Palm Springs. Djokovic, also has an excellent defense foundation, and that is one of the reasons he made it to the finals last year. Wild cards Mardy Fish, Robby Ginepri, John Isner, Donald Young and former top tenner Mario Ancic, will look to capitalize on their good fortunes and progress as far as they can. I’m hoping for a deep run by youngster Donald Young. His Rios like game has been showing signs of life lately, but a quarters or semi-final berth would really catapult the Chicago native into a big time player. John Isner, who clearly has no issues of being a “big time player” will look to ride his serve through at least a few matches. Concerns always arise when Im asked about tall players and their potentials. Players such as Ivo Karlovic, Martin Verkerk and Joachim Johansson have historically not done as well as they could have, because they were not great movers and injury prone. Joachim Johansson has since retired and Verkerk, the former French Open finalist is currently on career life support, trying to rebuild his ranking, as he is playing a futures event in Montreal this week. I hope the same fate does not fall upon young Isner, as he is a great guy and good for American tennis.

On to the draw break down, and as per usual a field that guarantees the top 52 players in the world, has brought forth many mouth watering opening round match ups. The top 32 seeds have byes into the second round, so if Im a 1st round ticket holder my focus is on the Gael Monfils/Mario Ancic 1st round match up. Clearly the best match of the opening round, Monfils who is full of talent and athleticism is coming off of injury and looking to break through towards perhaps the top 15. Ancic, a former top ten player has been playing well as of late, and i suspect the top 15 is well within reach again.

Roger Federer has the toughest of all quarters to deal with. His draw as has him facing either in form Andy Roddick or the man who just beat him last week in Dubai, Andy Murray. If R-Fed loses to Roddick in the quarters, then tennis fans should seriously be worried for the Swiss, since he is currently a stellar 15-1 against the Amercian. However, Roddick has just announced that he will skip the Olympics this year, in order to be in better form for the U.S. Open. This move shows me the that A-Rod is super confident in his current game. I feel as though this is the year that he really finally believes that he can take out Federer at the U.S. Open. Undoubtedly, his current form and tournament wins in San Jose and Dubai have boosted his confidence. Plain and simple, although Roddick has played well as of late, for the top guys to take him seriously again, he needs impressive results in both Indian Wells as well as Miami.

Rafael Nadal, by contrast has a relatively easy draw as with a potential rematch with Jo- Wilfred Tsonga in the 4th round and potentially either Richard Gasquet or James Blake in the quarters. Nadal looks good for at least a quarter-final showing in the event. Unfortunately for Rafael, a quarter final showing will see him lose points towards over taking Federer. I do not see Nadal repeating as champion.

Novak Djokovic has the easiest draw of the top 3 seeds with a majority of the qualifiers in his section. Tough Spaniard David Ferrer is his potential quarter-final opponent. Novak will benefit from his soft draw and if his current fitness problems, specifically his breathing issues do not get in his way, Djokovic should be good for a semi-final to finals performance.

Look for David Nalbandian, the 7 seed to continue his great form as of late and potentially progress to the quarter-finals. Ive mentioned in previous posts, that Nalbandian has no points to defend in all of the up coming tournaments. If an “interested” and close to as fit Nalbandian shows up, look for David to make a serious push towards the top 5 in the rankings.

My dark horse for the tournament is Mario Ancic. The Croation should get by Monfils, and then out of form Fernando Gonzalez. Look for Mario the push Nalbandian in the 4th round with the winner of that match going towards a semi-final appearance.

Lots of questions will be answered over the few tournaments. Will Roger Federer gain much needed ranking points towards gaining a firm hold on his number 1 spot? Indian Wells and the up coming masters series in Miami, are the only 2 big tournaments that Federer did not perform well in last year. Therefore, with Nadal and Djokovic forced to play well because of all of the points they have to defend, this is an ideal time of year for Federer to step it up. I’m hoping Federer puts all his recent critics to rest, and breaks through with a power house performance and take his 4th title at the Tennis Gardens.

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